Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 1.253743e-01 0.154044 0.185262 0.221488 0.262081 0.305896 0.356493
2025-03-30 8.463179e-02 0.121345 0.165098 0.219855 0.285363 0.360121 0.450787
2025-04-06 5.814253e-02 0.098071 0.150140 0.219981 0.308349 0.413834 0.546685
2025-04-13 4.163875e-02 0.082955 0.141747 0.225659 0.336958 0.474706 0.653322
2025-04-20 3.046662e-02 0.072030 0.136408 0.233583 0.367784 0.538884 0.765967
2025-04-27 2.203548e-02 0.062623 0.131124 0.240131 0.396237 0.600470 0.876920
2025-05-04 1.458628e-02 0.051970 0.121585 0.238777 0.412913 0.646596 0.968962
2025-05-11 1.010847e-02 0.045226 0.116902 0.243593 0.437691 0.703551 1.075833
2025-05-18 6.213384e-03 0.037446 0.108576 0.241299 0.451373 0.745286 1.163162
2025-05-25 2.941357e-03 0.028184 0.094955 0.228254 0.447569 0.762016 1.216850
2025-06-01 1.640889e-03 0.024047 0.090695 0.230370 0.466370 0.810320 1.313484
2025-06-08 6.428746e-04 0.018930 0.082659 0.224513 0.471902 0.839377 1.383956
2025-06-15 3.621170e-04 0.017709 0.084031 0.236593 0.507132 0.912964 1.518373
2025-06-22 9.355771e-05 0.014565 0.079350 0.236414 0.522228 0.957441 1.613176
2025-06-29 9.471360e-06 0.012073 0.075567 0.237447 0.539135 1.004786 1.712656
2025-07-06 1.237385e-08 0.010644 0.074549 0.243955 0.565371 1.066463 1.833187
2025-07-13 NaN 0.009643 0.074599 0.252617 0.595445 1.134334 1.963281
2025-07-20 NaN 0.008575 0.073994 0.259703 0.622896 1.198611 2.088993
2025-07-27 NaN 0.006834 0.069873 0.258391 0.635331 1.239993 2.182247
2025-08-03 NaN 0.005899 0.068654 0.263530 0.659294 1.299409 2.302112
2025-08-10 NaN 0.004542 0.064498 0.261154 0.669389 1.337288 2.391040
2025-08-17 NaN 0.002800 0.056254 0.247428 0.657689 1.340414 2.428942
2025-08-24 NaN 0.002218 0.054407 0.249673 0.675755 1.390767 2.536630